In response to the recent surge in domestic gasoline demand and supply imbalances, the National Development and Reform Commission, along with the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, General Administration of Customs, and State Administration of Taxation, have announced a new policy to suspend export tax rebates for refined oil products from September 1 to December 31 this year. This move has sparked widespread debate among industry experts and market participants.
Many analysts argue that simply halting export tax rebates may not be enough to resolve the underlying issues causing the "oil shortage." According to an expert from the Henan Academy of Social Sciences, the current situation is largely due to a severe imbalance in the domestic refined oil market. While domestic refineries continue to profit from exporting refined products, the price gap between crude oil imports and refined oil exports remains significant. Additionally, the discrepancy between the cost of crude oil and the ex-factory price of refined goods has pushed companies to rely on exports to offset losses.
According to available data, the price of gasoline in international markets such as Singapore, Rotterdam, and New York is currently about 1,400 yuan per ton lower than in China. This creates a substantial gross profit margin of over 28% for exporters. Even after accounting for additional costs, the net profit still exceeds 25%. In contrast, China's current export tax rebate rate stands at only 11%, meaning that even without the rebate, exporters can still make a significant profit. As a result, the suspension of the tax rebate may have limited impact on curbing exports.
Moreover, while the policy might reduce some export activity, it does not necessarily translate into increased domestic supply. Industry insiders suggest that many companies will find ways to circumvent the policy. For instance, one refinery executive in East China mentioned that “there are always policies and countermeasures.†With expectations of rising domestic prices, companies may deliberately limit supply to the market. Similarly, some traders in Henan have already started stockpiling refined oil products, waiting for prices to rise before selling.
Experts recommend that the government should not rely solely on tax rebate suspensions to address the issue. Instead, they emphasize the need for structural reforms, including breaking the existing monopoly in the oil supply and production sectors and encouraging private investment in the refined oil market. Additionally, improving the strategic reserve system and providing support to affected industries like transportation would help stabilize the market.
In conclusion, while the temporary suspension of export tax rebates may offer a short-term solution, it is not a long-term fix. A comprehensive approach that addresses both supply and market structure is essential to ensure stable and sufficient gasoline supply in the future.
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