The National Federation of Passengers recently released the car sales data for February: In February, the national sales of general passenger cars nationwide was 1,498,200, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year; from January to February, the sales volume of general passenger cars was 3.17 million, down 2.9 year-on-year. %. This is the only beginning of the negative growth in cumulative retail growth in the first two months of recent years. "This is almost a situation that has never happened since 2005. It can be regarded as the worst in history." In the face of the performance of the passenger car market in the first two months, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Association, said.
Compared to the beginning of negative growth, the impact of several warm currents makes people feel that the spring of the car market should not be far away. From the sales volume in February, independent brands continued to lead the growth of the automobile market with the advantages of SUV models, and the market share increased again. After a series of changes such as policy adjustments, the new energy vehicle market recovered rapidly.
Year-on-year growth
Cui Dongshu believes that the growth in February was based on the “weak growth in the weak situation†in the same period of last year. The main reason is that the policy of halving the purchase tax of 1.6L and below in the fourth quarter of last year is coming to an end, consumption has been overdrawn, and this year. The Spring Festival holiday time is earlier than in previous years, affecting sales. In terms of vehicle production, statistics from the Association show that the narrow passenger car production in February and the retail sales formed a gap of about 340,000 vehicles. In this regard, Cui Dongshu believes that the entire industry may face high inventory risks.
The China Automobile Dealer Inventory Alert Index released by the China Automobile Dealers Association showed that the inventory alert index for February was 66.6%, an increase of 5.1 percentage points from the previous month. This index is even close to the highest index of 67.5% in March 2015. Under the high index, the dealer inventory will be seriously serious, resulting in increased operational risks, and more serious will bring the risk of terminal price vicious competition. It is worth noting that from the market segment, only SUVs showed growth in February, with sales of 622,400 units, up 29.2% year-on-year; while retail sales of cars were 674,800 units, down 0.3% year-on-year; MPV retail sales reached 151,000. The vehicle decreased by 9.1% year-on-year.
For the future trend of new car sales, the Federation will also be more worried. Cui Dongshu believes that in March, car companies may take measures to promote consumption, but compared to last year's "pull consumption", the growth potential of "push-type consumption" this year will not be strong. As far as car companies are concerned, February has shown a more obvious differentiation. In terms of self-owned car companies, Geely Automobile sold 8.90 million units in February, up 167% year-on-year; Guangzhou Automobile's sales volume was 33,000 units, up 136% year-on-year, while BAIC's own brand sales fell 42.8% year-on-year. . In this regard, Cui Dongshu believes that the market will intensify in March, and the sales performance will be further differentiated. Moreover, manufacturers and distributors have increased their inventory in the first two months, and they have more incentives to promote the market. The overall growth rate of the auto market in March is expected to be 10% to 15%, but for the whole year of this year, there is still pressure in the third and fourth quarters.
Independently continue to attack
From the February data, the SUV market is changing the inherent pattern of the Chinese auto market. After continuous high growth, sales of SUVs are rapidly approaching cars, with sales of 673,400 units in February, up 38.1% year-on-year. At this point, the proportion of the SUV market has increased from 36.8% of passenger cars in 2016 to 41.6% in the first two months of this year, and the sales of SUVs in February have narrowed the sales volume of cars to 50,000 vehicles, the SUV market. The share may soon surpass the car. "With this speed of development, the absolute sales of SUVs in one year can be used to tie the car. In two years, the car will become the largest category in the Chinese auto market." According to industry insiders.
From the sales ranking, the joint venture brand has been beaten by the independent brand in the SUV market. Under the attack of independent madness, the joint venture temporarily chose to retreat. The data shows that in the top ten rankings of sales in February, the self-owned brands occupied 8 seats and monopolized the top 7 positions. Such as Geely, Guangzhou Automobile Chuanqi, SAIC passenger car and other major brand manufacturers, with the strength of the SUV, product advantages are reflected, there has been a new highlight in the low season under the low base. The Honda CR-V, which has the highest joint venture ranking, ranks only eighth. It has been firmly controlling the Tiguan joint venture. In February, it sold only 7,226 vehicles, ranking 26th. At the same time, the joint venture car companies collectively wilted, not only has been the excellent performance of the Tiguan, Angkewei suffered setbacks, and even the popular Honda Binzhi, Hyundai ix25 and other small meats are no longer shining. For example, Honda Binzhi, the previous sales of tens of thousands of vehicles, sales in February only 7058, the ranking has also dropped to 29. It is precisely because of the weakness in the SUV market that joint ventures such as North and South Volkswagen, General Motors, Ford and other companies are also weak, and the pressure is high in the later period.
New energy vehicle rebound
With the arrival of the new subsidy policy, after the sales volume of the new energy vehicle plummeted in January, the sales volume in February rebounded to 18,000 units, an increase of 145% from the previous month and an increase of 30.3%. However, due to the cliff-like decline in January, the total production and sales of new energy vehicles from January to February still fell year-on-year. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the cumulative production from January to February was 25,213 units, down 33.5% year-on-year; the cumulative sales were 24,781 units, down 30.5% year-on-year.
The sudden drop in sales of new energy vehicles in January was mainly the result of the double superposition of “subsidy retreat†and “recommended catalogue reaffirmation†policies. After the gradual clarification in February, the rapid adjustment of the car companies made the market show a rising trend. Although in February this year, due to the influence of holiday factors, the overall level of automobile production and sales was relatively low. On January 23, the first batch of “Recommended Models for Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles†issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology was officially released in 2017. On March 1, the second batch of recommended catalogues landed, and the first two batches of recommended catalogues totaled 386 models. The impact of the policy on the Beijing new energy vehicle market is particularly evident. Some insiders said that Beijing's local subsidy policy has greatly improved the year-on-year sharp decline after the arrival of the local subsidy policy. The demand in the Beijing market will drive the rapid recovery of new energy production and sales.
Judging from the current application for new energy vehicle indicators in Beijing, the sales of new energy vehicles in the second quarter will grow rapidly. It is reported that Beijing's 2017 demonstration of the application of new energy personal indicators quota of 51,000, February allocation of 40,328 indicators, the unit's 3000 indicators configured 2,601. These new configuration indicators were launched within six months, and it is estimated that new energy vehicles entering the climax from March to July will enter the climax.
Some industry experts said, "Most of the new energy vehicle companies are still in the policy digestive period. With the release of the first and second batch of new energy vehicle promotion catalogues and the "Promotion of Action Plan for Promoting Automotive Power Battery Industry Development", the second quarter, new The energy auto market will gradually return to normal, and the industry will maintain a high growth rate of over 40% for the whole year.†The China Automobile Association expects that the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 700,000 to 800,000 units in 2017.
Just two months later, the 2017 auto market has shown various variables and vitality. With the restructuring of the automobile market and the arrival of the pan-brand era, the 2017 auto market will surely have more to look at.
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