Jia Xinguang: Inventory 2 million cars tightened in the third quarter

According to his analysis, this year the Chinese market is characterized by highs and lows. The current inventory of the auto market has reached a historic 2 million units. With the tightening of the policies in the third quarter, the increase in the auto market will continue to fall, not to rule out price wars. Full outbreak. At the same time, Jia Xinguang also said that despite the slowdown, the general direction of the auto market will continue to grow next year, and the increase will remain between 5% and 10%.

This year's high-end car aftermarket, high-end cars, SUV hot

From January to July of this year, domestic automobile production was 10.2131 million units, an increase of 43.64% year-on-year; sales of 10.26 million vehicles were up 42.65% year-on-year. Compared with the same period of last year, the overall trend of the automotive market in the first half of this year was a period of high opening in the first quarter and a gradual decline in the second quarter.

In this regard, Jia Xinguang analyzed there are three main reasons. First, sales were overdrawn in 2010 by the end of 2009. At the end of 2009, the "last train" for the purchase tax halving of 1.6L and below caused many consumers to rush towards small-displacement vehicles, resulting in a serious shortage of car manufacturers' inventory. Some orders were still undigested and even came in early 2010. Therefore, in the first quarter of this year, many small-displacement vehicles were restocked, forming a hot trend.

Second, in the second quarter, China is facing the pressure of various policy controls such as the regulation of the housing market.

The trend of strong sales of trucks brought by the party's investment began to slow down. Third, the inventory of the following 1.6-liter models is in abundance, and adjustments are very difficult. Therefore, since June, the production and sales volume of some manufacturers have been rapidly reduced, which also caused a sharp decline in sales in June.

At the same time, Jia Xinguang analyzed that the obvious difference between this year's auto market and last year is that the cheaper the car is, the better it is to sell, but the better the car, the better. "Compared with the sales of small-displacement vehicles last year, the hot categories in the auto market this year are mainly B-class cars, luxury cars and SUVs." The data shows that in the first half of this year, the fastest-growing vehicles were the B-class cars and luxury cars. Cars, of which, the B-class car growth 51.6%, C-class car growth of 56.2%, D-class car growth is the most significant, up to 164.6%; SUV is still high fever, the increase is also more than 100%, up to 115%; MPV to become a Dark horses, an increase of up to 94%.

Achieves 17 million units in the second half of the year to digest inventory

For the full-year auto market forecast in 2010, Jia Xinguang said that “in the first half of this year, 9 million vehicles have been produced and sold, and it is expected that 17 million vehicles will be achieved throughout the year.”

At the same time, Jia Xinguang also believes that from the third quarter, the situation in the auto market in the second half of the year has tightened. Mainly based on three aspects of analysis: First, from the beginning of June on the introduction of energy-saving Huimin vehicle subsidy policy,

The pulling effect of auto sales is not obvious. Second, there are more holidays from August to October, reducing the number of working days. Starting from August, some manufacturers have begun to place high-temperature fakes; from September to October, there are two long holidays, the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day.

Third, the 2 million inventories left over in the first half of the year will bring greater pressure in the second half of the year. According to

In the first half of this year, according to the statistics of the Auto Group, in addition to the company's inventory, the figure should be about 1.5 times that of car sales if it counts the amount of inventory in transit and market terminals. This way, the inventory of the entire industry may have exceeded 2 million vehicles. . Jia Xinguang said that if the 2 million inventories are not dealt with in time, the sales pressure in the second half of the year will be great.

Next year's auto market slows down, manufacturers must have anti-risk capabilities

At the recently concluded Lhasa Auto Marketing Summit, a total of 16 automobile manufacturers marketing executives believe that next year's auto market will maintain 5% -10% growth, but there are also 8 leaders that the auto market will maintain a 0-5% growth next year .

In this regard, Jia Xinguang analyzed that the growth of the auto market next year is closely related to the macroeconomic environment. “Inventory cover benefit is the reason for the high economic growth rate in the first half of this year, and it is also one of the reasons for the rapid economic slowdown in the second half of the year. Multiple slump strengths will erupt in the fourth quarter at the same time. In the fourth quarter, investment and exports will decline significantly. With real estate prices falling and fixed asset investments falling, the GDP growth in the fourth quarter may be below 8%."

At the same time, Jia Xinguang also said that "taking into account the impact of local debt, real estate control policies and other aspects, China's GDP growth this year can still maintain 10%, but next year, China's GDP growth rate will further slow to 9%." Macroeconomic situation The changes will have an impact on the auto market. Therefore, Jia Xinguang suggested that auto makers should be fully prepared for the auto market next year.

He suggested that car dealers should upgrade their current marketing methods and engage in more accurate marketing and cultural marketing. “Even if you are doing activities, you must find more potential customers and strive to achieve every 'bullet' to eliminate an 'enemy.' At the same time, service-driven profitability, group development to enhance the ability to resist risks, etc. are also options for car dealers. The way of development.

In addition, for more sensitive inventory issues, Jia Xinguang also put forward unique insights - "60 days is not the cap of Chinese dealers' inventory." He said, "The 60 days as an inventory cap is an American reference. The industry’s paper business is relatively developed, dealers receive commercial vehicles, commercial bills can be opened, there is a 60-day repayment period, manufacturers can take bills of exchange can be discounted, so 60 days is appropriate, but the Chinese dealers are using cash to mention cars, loans Difficulties, financial constraints, and a day are not appropriate.” Jia Xinguang believes that the inventory pressure of Chinese distributors is actually a financial pressure, and it can be considered to solve this problem through public financing.