Demand in the international market is strong The Chinese polysilicon industry welcomes the second spring

Just a few months ago, the polysilicon industry was still surrounded by various bad words. "Overcapacity of polysilicon," "polysilicon companies will close the tide," and "medium and small (polysilicon) companies nude swimming" and so on so that the entire industry shrouded in the gloom Among them.
However, "it was as if the night came to the east and thousands of trees blossomed." More and more signs show that China's polysilicon solar energy industry is ushering in the second spring after experiencing the peak of 2006-2007 and the trough of 2008-2009. "Now that there are too many international orders, every company can't do it. Many companies are expanding their production capacity and can't meet their needs." In an interview with reporters, Miao Liansheng, chairman of Yingli Green Energy, which has gained fame as a result of sponsoring the World Cup, revealed.
Due to the strong demand in the international market, leading to the shortage of polysilicon raw materials and solar cell components, polysilicon prices have fallen below 50 US dollars/kg from the trough and have risen to the current US$65/kg or even higher.
1. Phenomenon "There are so many factory orders can't be completed"
At the solar energy exhibition in Munich, Germany in early June, Yingli Green Energy received orders of more than 4G watts. For the whole year of 2010, the total installed capacity of the global photovoltaic industry is expected to be 10G watts. At present, Yingli's production capacity is only about 1G watts. The reporter learned from companies such as Suntech of Wuxi, Baosteel of Tianwei, and New Energy of Tuo Ri that these domestic leading photovoltaic companies are now producing enough horsepower, but many orders have already been placed next year. "Not only is the big company's orders full, but like the small and medium-sized SMEs of ours, orders are also inexhaustible." The head of a small solar energy company in Baoding, Hebei, told reporters.
In order to respond to the orders, Yingli Green Energy announced the expansion of 400 megawatts of production capacity, including the basic capacity of 300 megawatts of monocrystalline silicon at the headquarters of Baoding and the base capacity of 100 megawatts of polysilicon in Haikou, Hainan Province. Miao Liansheng predicts that Yingli’s total production capacity will reach 1400 megawatts by the end of this year, and the cost of photovoltaic power generation can be reduced to 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour, which has the ability to compete commercially with traditional energy sources.
It is not only Ying Li that actively expands production. In early June, Wuxi Suntech Power, the world’s second-largest solar cell manufacturer, announced high-profile plans for expansion to meet growing demand. According to Shi Zhengrong, chairman of Wuxi Suntech, the company plans to invest RMB 2.68 billion to build a 1G-watt production base in Minhang District, Shanghai, which is close to the company's existing production capacity. “This year we (the products) have all been sold out. We have insufficient production capacity to meet the needs of our customers,” he pointed out. “We have arrears in the second quarter due to insufficient capacity, and there are outstanding accounts in the third quarter.”
In addition to the "old" companies actively expanding their military preparations, many new forces are also optimistic about the prospects of the solar energy industry and have come in succession. On July 7, Li Aoyao, Chairman of Taiwan's AU Optronics, announced that it will invest NT$73 billion (approximately RMB 15.3 billion) to build the largest solar photovoltaic production base in the Asia Pacific region. Two super-large solar cells and modules will be built. Plant, capacity planning up to 2 billion watts (2GW). In addition, China Southern Power Grid New Energy Company is preparing.
2. Probing the demand in the international market. China is the global manufacturing base for polysilicon solar energy. In 2009, global solar cell output was around 10G watts, while China accounted for 40% of the total, ranking first in the world. Since most of China's solar energy is exported, the domestic polysilicon solar energy industry has bottomed out and production and sales are booming. The fundamental reason for this is the strong demand in the international market.
Germany, as the world's largest photovoltaic market, currently has about 10,000 megawatts of power into the grid. In 2009 alone, Germany installed a lot of equipment with a total power of more than 3,800 megawatts. The German solar market is at the forefront of the world, thanks to the government's strong subsidies. However, the German government released the wind a few months ago, saying it would cut subsidies.
On the afternoon of July 5, the German Bundestag and the Senate Mediation Committee reached an agreement on a solar energy subsidy program. However, in Shi Zhengrong's view, Chinese manufacturers are producing at full capacity, indicating that Germany’s expectations of reducing subsidies have not had much impact on the market. Miao Liansheng also said that solar energy is gradually gaining popularity and acceptance by the general public in Germany. The local photovoltaic market already has 50% of residential roof projects. The purchase decision is made by each household and shows that the market has really begun to mature. stage.
The United States is also pushing for the application of solar energy. A report released by the American Solar Energy Industry Association shows that in 2009, the United States added 481 MW of installed solar power, second only to Germany, Italy and Japan. On the previous July 3, US President Barack Obama said that the US Department of Energy will provide 1.85 billion U.S. dollars to support two solar energy companies.
Japan’s incentive system for solar energy since February 2009 has further activated Japan’s solar market. Including Japan's Sharp, Sanyo and other solar giants have publicly pointed out that the increase in the proportion of outsourcing OEM orders in 2010, making China's Taiwan solar OEM companies full orders. In order to meet the needs of customers, Taiwan-based solar cell plants are expected to build new plants in the second half of the year, or expand production to meet demand.
3. Consequences The profitability of solar energy companies has risen sharply. Due to the financial crisis, from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the whole year of 2009, China's major polysilicon solar energy companies have generally fallen into losses, and many companies have had to idle some of their production capacity. Some workers to overcome difficulties. Among them, Yingli Green Energy suffered a loss of RMB 460 million in 2009; Tianwei Change's Xinguang Silicon and Tianwei Yingli’s polysilicon business revenues also fell sharply; LDK’s second quarter’s second quarter’s huge loss of USD 205.5 million; Tongwei’s shares Even because of the loss of polysilicon business, it was stripped from the listed company...
However, since the second half of last year, boosted by the recovery in international market demand, the profitability of China's solar energy companies has gradually recovered. By the first half of this year, the major solar energy companies have achieved substantial profits.
Yingli Green Energy reported in the first quarter of this year that its total net revenue was 2.45 billion yuan, gross profit was 815 million yuan, and gross profit margin reached a record 33.3%. This means that Yingli’s commitment to fulfilling the company’s annual gross profit margin of 27% to 29% for Wall Street at the beginning of the year is not a false one. Wuxi Suntech also had a very bright earnings report in the first quarter of 2010: total revenue was US$588 million, an increase of 86.3% year-on-year; Revenue was US$20.7 million, an increase of 19.5%; the company adjusted its 2010 capacity target from 1.25GW to 1.3GW, which is an increase of 85% over 2009.
LDK LDK achieved sales of $347.6 million in the first quarter of this year and gross profit of $54.5 million. Compared with the net loss of US$13.2 million in the previous quarter, the company successfully turned losses into profits in the first quarter of 2010, with a net income of US$7.2 million.
4. Rebound of related raw materials prices Regaining the international price of out-of-stock polysilicon once reached 400-500 USD/kg in the peak of the first half of 2008, but it has rapidly declined since the second half of 2008, once falling to 50 USD/kg, resulting in multiple Polysilicon production companies either closed down or cut production, and the polysilicon industry fell into a trough.
However, with the warming of the international market, market demand has also led to the bottoming out of polysilicon raw material prices. It is understood that due to the full production of the PV industry this year, driven by the dual demands of the photovoltaic industry and the semiconductor industry, polysilicon supply is tight. At present, the price of polysilicon has risen from US$50-52/kg to US$60-65/kg. Many industry first-line manufacturers expect polysilicon prices will gradually rise to 70-80 US dollars / kg.
According to relevant information from LDK, the company's production capacity of polysilicon has exceeded 6,000 tons so far, and it may exceed 10,000 tons by the end of the year, but it can only meet less than half of the company's annual demand.
Yingli Green Energy's production line covers the entire photovoltaic industry chain, including polysilicon production, silicon ingot casting, silicon cutting, photovoltaic cell production and photovoltaic module packaging. Because Yingli has its own polysilicon raw material production capacity, the rebound in polysilicon prices and tight supply have not caused much impact on Yingli. However, in order to ensure the supply of raw materials in the future, Yingli has invested heavily in the expansion of production.
In addition to polysilicon raw materials, the battery components have also been caught in tight supply due to the booming market. According to Chen Weipeng, a sales manager of a solar cell module manufacturer in Beijing, the shortage of supply in the market has exacerbated the competition for raw materials by the big manufacturers, and their purchase volume has greatly increased, causing many SMEs to face the challenge of “no rice cookers”.
Capital favors the solar industry Compared to the evasive attitude of the solar energy industry in 2009, capital's attitude toward the solar industry has already undergone a 180-degree turn. On July 5, Yingli Group and the Hebei Development Branch of the China Development Bank formally signed a planning cooperation agreement, and Yingli obtained a credit line of no more than RMB 36 billion. The move laid a foundation for Yingli Photovoltaic Products to fully open up the global market.
Miao Liansheng, chairman of Yingli Group, also disclosed that ADB will invest approximately US$9 billion in the solar PV industry in the next three years.

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