Industry sources said: petrochemical prices are unlikely to rise sharply

In the next two or three months, changes in the oil price in the international market and the production of downstream companies will still be the main factors affecting the price changes of petrochemical products. Industry insiders believe that the price of petrochemical products in the near future is unlikely to rise significantly.
First, the high oil price in the international market will still play a certain role in supporting the price of petrochemical products. At present, although the international market oil price has dropped more than 70 US dollars per barrel in the second quarter of last year, but compared with the same period last year, the decline is not very large, including New York WTI crude oil in February the average spot price of 59.27 US dollars / barrel Compared with the same period of last year, it only decreased by 3.83%, and the Singapore market's gasoline price was slightly higher than the same period of last year. At present, international oil prices are still at a relatively high level in the same period of history. In the coming period, it will be difficult for the oil price in the international market to drop again. The continued high oil price operation will still have a certain role in supporting the price of petrochemical products.
Second, the production of downstream companies also has an important impact on the price of domestic petrochemical products. In March, downstream petrochemical companies will resume production, and some companies will have lower raw material inventory before the Spring Festival. Therefore, the demand for petrochemical products will increase in the short term, which will have a certain pulling effect on petrochemical prices. However, due to the macro control and the long-term high raw material cost, the sales revenue and profit growth rate of some downstream industries have shown a downward trend. Among them, the Plastic products industry in 2006 sales growth of 23.96% year-on-year, the growth rate fell 37 percentage points from the previous year; the industry's profit growth of 28.21%, the growth rate decreased by 17.42 percentage points over the previous year, the loss of the entire industry loss-making enterprises The total amount increased by 16.86% year-on-year, an increase of 13.79 percentage points from the same period of last year. Poor operating conditions will make downstream companies more cautious in production and procurement, which will make it difficult for petrochemical products to continue to rise sharply.
Third, continuous increase in production capacity will also affect petrochemical product prices to some extent. In recent years, due to the sharp rise in the prices of petrochemical products, some petrochemical production plants have been built in China, and the production capacity of petrochemical products has increased significantly. According to the relevant information, the designed production capacity of several large-scale polypropylene production plants built in China in 2006 was nearly 1.5 million tons. These devices will be put into operation one after another this year. If these capacities are converted into production, they will have a significant impact on the domestic market and prices of related petrochemical products in the future.

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